WWDC Review: New iPhones mean no more laptops?

Yesterday was a busy day. At BestMacs we had a couple of downed servers to deal with (stupid hard drives on both) so we didn’t get to sit huddled around a live broadcast of the keynote. The impact of all the new Apple gear is still settling in with us. All four of your BestMacs team will be commenting on the changes this week.

In case you missed Molly’s cliff notes yesterday, here’s the short list:

• iPhone Software version 3.0
• new iPhone hardware (3GS) and price reduction on existing model to $99
• Snow Leopard (Mac OS X 10.6) announcement and preview
• Safari 4.0 release
• All-new Mac laptop line up

Just one of these would make for a pretty good discussion, but all 5 on one day?!  Daaaang.

I’m going to start with the one that for me sets off wild possibilities for the future of computing and asks us to open our wallets again: new iPhone hardware. 

This new model paves the way for a whole new mobile platform – it may make laptops obsolete in a few years. And once again, we have to confront the big hardware upgrade questions.

Much of what happened at WWDC had been rumored or even publicly previewed for quite some time.  iPhone 3G(S) was essentially the same way.  Separate this out from the iPhone 3.0 software which adds most of the good stuff that iPhone users have been craving (like copy/paste).

iPhone 3G(S) brings essentially three major things to the table:

1. a better camera with video capability.  It’s a 3 megapixel (instead of 2 megapixel like before) and now has the ability to focus in on a subject with a simple touch on the preview.  What’s even more slick is the ability to do basic edits of your photos and videos right on the phone, and then share them instantly via upcoming MMS service or web methods.  No computer required.
2. Speed.  iPhone 3G(S) has a processor that Apple says is twice as fast as the previous.  In the keynote, apps were flying open like nobody’s business.  I suspect that this will pave the way to better multi-tasking to negate one of the strengths of the Palm Pre.  And it now supports the faster 7.2Mbps wireless 3G network that AT&T is rolling out.  7.2Mbps on a phone?!  Are you kidding me?! – To put that in context folks, most business DSL plans top out at 6Mbps.
3. Voice recognition and control.  I’ll have to see this to believe it, but supposedly you can now control iPhone music and phone calls with voice commands.  I’m skeptical because voice recognition is such a tricky technology and I’ve never seen it really work without some kind of voice training.  Perhaps limiting it to just calls and music, which should have a limited command set may make it functional…again, time will tell.  But if it works, true hands-free driving with the iPhone may be enough to get me to shell out again.

I left the Compass off the feature list because it essentially makes me yawn, but I suspect that someone out there, like maybe my Mom the ornithologist may find it useful while sitting in the middle of a swamp.

All three of these hardware improvements, in tandem with iPhone 3.0 (which will be available to all of us existing iPhone users) set the stage for Apple to keep their new found smartphone competitiveness and even overtake the other players.  The fact that the device addresses many of the shortcomings of the previous hardware (better camera, voice control), can do many computer tasks without the computer (like editing video, sharing it), and has an Internet connection that one the road can be faster than what many of us have at home or work – iPhone is setting up to be a platform that goes beyond smartphone and starts to cross into the new world of netbooks.  Add a bluetooth keyboard (which should be possible in 3.0 software) and this could get very interesting… think of the new Netbook craze, which is another forthcoming article from me on BestMacs.com, but a fast iPhone with cable-fast Internet that can do true multi-tasking and a full-size external wireless keyboard? I’m leaving my laptop at home…adds a whole new wrinkle to my MacBook Air Experiment (article later this week.)

But there are some hindrances – it took AT&T till last December to get existing 3G in Lawrence.  I suspect getting the 7.2 version will take a while.  I remain skeptical about just how dramatic the speed improvement will be and the aforementioned voice control.  And finally it will take a pretty big shift in strategy (and probably User Interface) to get true multi-tasking in the iPhone.  But at least the hardware will be there if and when any of these things come to pass.

As far as price, it brings us back to the old hardware upgrade debate that we have with the Mac.  When have we gotten our investment value out of what we have?  Is the upgrade so much better that it’s worth upgrading ahead of schedule?

So far, I spent $600 to get first-gen iPhone on Day 1.  A year and a half later, $300 to get the subsidized iPhone 3G last December.  I waited six months because a) 3G wasn’t in Lawrence, b) I felt that I needed to keep the original for a while longer to get the investment out of it.  But when I finally took the plunge it was worth it – the 3G speed boost made a world of difference in using the device on the road.

Now it gets more complex.  Because 3G buyers were subsidized by AT&T – they got their phones for $200 or $300 (instead of $600 or $700 unsubsidized), users who want to upgrade from 3G to 3G(S) have to wait about 18 months from time of purchase to get the advertised $200 and $300 price (for 16GB and 32GB respectively).  For me that means June 2011.  I can get a 16GB now for $400;basically a $200 “penalty” for upgrading so soon – or I could shell out the full $600 and get one without renewing my 2-year agreement, thus unsubsidized.  If you look at it, I’ve only gotten 6 months out of my current iPhone 3G for its $300 investment.  That’s not a great return, so, I will probably wait.  By the time I’m eligible for another AT&T subsidy in 2011, they may have iPhone 4G or something…

It really is the same thought process as a new Mac (and possibly even a new car) … much like how I haven’t gotten a new computer since 2007 because the track for that kind of investment ought to be about 3 to 5 years. (The MacBook Air was a lateral.  More on that later this week.)  By 3 years, the technology has improved enough that its worth another $1000-3000 to upgrade.  For iPhone one could argue the curve is 18 months.  If you still have a first-gen and skipped over the 3G, the 3G(S) is going to be a huge upgrade, well worth the $200 or $300 you spend (and get the subsidy.)  3G owners who dove in early – well, the smart move is probably to wait.  AT&T is betting you won’t be able to.  For many, they’re right.

Ultimately, the real winner is someone who just hasn’t taken the iPhone plunge yet.  The previous model 3G (like the one I’m using) in an 8GB capacity is now $99 with AT&T subsidy.

That $99 price tag may be the biggest iPhone news of the day.

Stay tuned for more WWDC analysis.

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