You may be right – I think TV broadcasting is still too tough a nut to crack, too many high power/high dollar players, but the book thing is very possible. Many are already rolling out iPod Touch to do similar with audio-video. Although maybe not McGraw-Hill.

Just not the computer game.

My best guess: this type of device will be the tipping point to end TV as we know it. As it (and copycat devices from Google, etc.) proliferate over the next few years, someone will crack the nut of á la carte internet TV, and the traditional broadcast/cable advertising model will completely crumble.

Or this: If a small college agrees to exclusively use Big Publisher’s e-textbooks (complete with banner ads), Big Publisher will supply every student with an iPad. Hey if Nike and addidas can supply athletic teams, why not McGraw-Hill supplying the books?

It’s going to be an interesting next few years.

I love the discussion; thanks for the comments.

You’re challenging my premise of iPad as a work device that might supplant a full computer, and your argument is one that I wholeheartedly agree with: what good is “the cloud” when you have no Internet. (I wrote the same in “Build Your Own Cloud” last year.) I mostly just want to see how close they are with this device. Brad’s point above is also interesting in that maybe this is the 1.0 that paves the way for the device you are hoping for.

I had not seen Flash on N1 or any other handheld. Looks decent – wonder how Jig would do in it. *snicker*

Apple’s decision to exclude Flash has less to do with technical capability and more with not creating another Microsoft. If HTML5 fails to launch, and Flash becomes the dominant standard, everyone is subject to Adobe’s whims if they want their app/website to run. With iPhone second only to Blackberry in market share, and responsible for over 50% of mobile data bandwidth, Apple is championing HTML5 and making everyone think twice about making Flash the de facto standard. I don’t look for that to change and in fact applaud it.

Completely agree with you on the multitasking bit. They have to figure it out and get it right and do it soon – it is *the* major objection to the platform. My experience with background process troubleshooting on OS X and other platforms tells me that current solutions are not the answer for iPhone. That’s got to be the hangup and I hope they figure out a real innovation soon.

Also recognize your point about not releasing a product prematurely. But then Apple is far from the worst at that particular problem. Pretty much every x.0 release, hardware or software, is a beta-test in progress. Generally speaking, if you wait until something is perfect before releasing it, it will never ship.

I don’t feel bad for “Applehards” for being early adopters and figuring out what needs to improve. Apple isn’t holding a gun to their head telling them to buy, but they are taking advantage of the fact that the fanboys will buy and tell them what’s good and bad. It’s free R&D!

I chronicled my MacBook Air experiment on this site, but here’s the gist: I bought my MacBook Air over a year after it came out because I wasn’t sold on it (thought it was crap) and I was still early in a 3 year investment on my previous MacBook. Only after using one for a few days, seeing its merits first hand, and selling my previous Mac for more money that the Air’s cost was I on board. That’s just smart shopping. Anyone who buys an iPad “just because Apple made it” shouldn’t whine about its lack of capability. Do your homework and decide if it’s worth the $500 (or more) and if not, don’t buy it. I’m getting the feeling you’ll be in the latter category. I bet a lot of non-tech savvy folk, who don’t care about the shortcomings you and I recognize, are going to buy the iPad in huge numbers.

To a point in my article: I plunked down $700 on the original iPhone on day 1, even without copy/paste, multitasking, 3G, GPS, compass, voice control, etc, etc… but it was still great. The conclusion that it was great was a choice I made going in.

Your points are noted, but I’d like to make a few counterpoints.

1. I realize iWork allows me to view and edit documents, but if I can’t save my docs directly to the iPad’, that’s a deal breaker. What if I need to pull up a device and Wi-Fi isn’t nearby? Without being able to save directly to the device, I have to pay for AT&T’s awful 3G service. So my iPad now doesn’t cost half a mac. It costs half a mac + $130 for the 3G version + $15 a month for the life of the device. If the iPad last me 3 years, that means I’m paying out $629 + $540, which comes out to $1169. For what the iPad does, that price is just unacceptable.

2. I’m not worried about the lack of Flash because the company I work for uses it for a lot of things. I’m worried about the lack of Flash because it’s currently EVERYWHERE on the web. And that’s not to say I like that fact – I don’t, and I can’t wait for HTML5 to standardize RIA on the web. But whether you or I or Jobs like it or not, Flash is unbelievable widespread right now, and probably will be for at least another year or two. So a device that can’t handle it just doesn’t serve its purpose (a rich browsing experience) as well as it should.

And as for Flash not being able to run on a mobile device, Android seems to have it figured out pretty well, and 10.1 is coming to the Nexus One in the next few weeks (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlWOocHwcLo)

3. My last point is true for both Flash and Multitasking: both the iPhone and iPad will not be able to move forward in the minds of consumers until these issues are resolved. They have become such hangups for people, that any future updates or upgrades won’t be great, because people will keep bringing up these points. Yes, I want Jobs to get that functionality to work in the best way possible before releasing it. But I am also starting to wonder if Apple might be better off just waiting to release new products before getting this functionality baked in. I feel like he’s just releasing an 80% of the way there product so that the Applehards who spend their hard-earned $$$ on one will have to spend even more hard-earned $$$ on the new and improved model that will come out 8 months later.
Nick Kinney´s last blog ..Just read this comment thread on a Campus Corner article on…

And that may just be the point.

Sure, like every biz, Apple wants to hit a home run with every launch. But, when the din of expectation quiets down, and I place a cold hard marketer’s eye on this release, there are some familiar glimmers of Apple’s marketing savvy that start to rise…

Remember the first Portable…?! My SE/30 was more functionally “portable” than this backbreaker (and somewhere in the basement I still have the porter’s expedition backpack carrying case to prove the point!). Yet, from the Portable came the Powerbook, defining a standard of excellence for what is now the ubiquitous, preferred format category.

Like heavy artillery softening the beaches before the Marines land, Apple’s marketing approach isn’t always subtle, and doesn’t always achieve the expected…I’ve taken Apple’s marketing efforts to task more than I’ve applauded them. But invariably, whether providing the breakthrough or serving as a distraction, Apple’s big guns generally pave the way for taking the objective (ok, enough with the military analogies). And I believe the objective in this case is more nuanced, more market positioning vs. technological breakthru…

Can see iPad setting the stage for a new form factor…one that’s not a tablet computer (yesterday’s technology), but a something else, and this Gen 1 version of iPad is the raw clay that Apple’s using in a public manner to evolve into this “evolutionary” niche. Precedent?

How about the argument for LC’s paving the way for the iMacs…for the cube begetting the mini? for the aforementioned Newton setting the stage (albeit a bit TOO early) for the eventual iPod, iTouch, iPhone?

No upon reflection, I see Apple doing what it’s always doen…sending out a new product (iPad 1.0) into the marketspace, intently so we the people will thru user cycles help them “get it right”…and with a measure of luck, confluence of desired technologies (i.e., storage, FLASH, connectivity ports, etc. as noted by other commenters) coming together, the iPad 2.0 will “redefine” a personal technology we didn’t know we wanted until it was clear we needed it.

Or it could be just another Portable, Newton, LC, Cube, etc.

Time will tell. And now I’ll be quiet and enjoy the show.
Thanks for your insights & expertise. We live in very interesting times, indeed.

bg

You were more disappointed than I realized. I think I know what you were hoping for: a sub-$1000 tablet running a touch-enabled Mac OS X? And you’re right we didn’t get that. I think that given the R&D involved in making a hybrid touch-based Mac OS X would have put the cost of the device so high that very few people would go for it (see G4 Cube).

I think for $500, half the cost of a MacBook, we got, well, half a Mac. Think in terms of “netbook”: they are usually underpowered little hunks of junk running a full-fledged Windows – in other words, crap. I’ve seen Leopard on a 1GHz computer: multitasking is not feasible on it either.

On to your points, which are all valid:

1. I agree, file management may be the key piece that keeps this from becoming a viable workstation. They key will be in the iWork apps. How will Keynote on iPad save a document, and to where? My guess is MobileMe or iWork.com. MobileMe is already do-able on iPhones. I can also already do WebDAV servers. But with 16GB of flash on the low-end you won’t be storing a lot of documents on it anyway. Hopefully they’ll build an AFP client into it with either iPhone OS 4.0 or in the apps themselves. We’ll just have to see when it comes out.

2. I know Flash is a major hang-up at your organization for a very key reason. I also know that the same key reason is a royal PITA for me and Jacob. Its an uncommon stance, but I can’t wait for Flash to go away; as it is I block on my Mac because more often than not it serves no functional purpose. It would perform like garbage on the iPad (not to mention iPhone and Touch) processor anyway. I have not seen Flash on another mobile device, but I’d bet money it sucks.

3. Remember how it took 2 iPhone OS revisions to get Copy/Paste? And now that it’s here, it may be the best mobile implementation we’ve seen. That had to come from countless hours of meetings and discussions – I’d bet with SJ himself, about how to do it so they got it right. I’m hopeful that some sort of background sandbox is in the works at Apple R&D. Rumor sites have had some cues that it may be coming in 4.0. I’m sure Apple is also tired of getting bonked on the head about this issue by their competitors (Sprint/Palm) and having to rely on a property of AT&T’s 3G to show they do have some “multitasking” (voice and data at same time).

You’re certainly not alone in your disappointment, but I’d just say wait and see. I hated MacBook Air when it came out – I thought it was overpriced and underpowered. I tried one and thought it deserved another shot. Now I have one and love it. That’s Apple.

I think you’re right on that no one really knows how this will pan out. But when I stack it against competition and Apple’s other offerings, I think they hit the mark of where it needs to go. Will it flop like Newton? No, it’s not that far ahead of its time. Fail like the G4 Cube? No, it’s not overpriced – in fact, I love the price point.

Like you said, it creates more questions than it answers right now. We’ll know what it’s about when we get it in our hands and use it. You know I’ll have one very soon after they clear backorders.

First of all, let me say that I, a bleeding edge tech user, am more than a little excited by touch UIs. They are, without a doubt, the future of computing, hands down. That said, though, the iPad is a huge disappointment.

Why? Let me tell you:

1. File management and software support. Where is it? Road warriors need server access and the ability to download, organize and edit all sorts of files. How am I supposed to do that without Finder or 3rd party software that isn’t in the App Store?

2. Flash. For a piece of hardware that was designed to be, primarily, a web-browsing device, the lack of Flash 10 (or Flash anything) is crippling. Yes, HTML5 is coming, and will make the lack of flash a non-issue in the future. Unfortunately, the iPad isn’t being announced in the future. It’s being announced NOW.

3. Multitasking. Again, as a web-browsing device, the iPad serves up a less than acceptable experience. No Pandora or Grooveshark while I make my way around the web in Mobile Safari? No Twitter or AIM unless I call up their respective apps? Boo, Apple. This fanboy, as much as he hates to say it, is looking forward to the tablet hardware/software that Android and *cough* Windows are set to release in the coming months.

What is clear, is that Apple continues to march to its own beat, refusing to simply “fill the expected” niche. In fact, guessing that with iPad they may have created several new niches (and potential IT/systems mgrs, buying decision headaches), while providing comedians with fodder for legions of new jokes for the name…!
By fact of its “i” name, I see iPad as being far less than revolutionary, and more an extension; of what I’m not sure. Don’t see it replacing my MacBook Pro…nor iPhone.

So what iPad will mean for me, my business remains to be seen. Like you I won’t be rushing to the store to buy one just yet. Been there done that.

iPad = Newton? boy, let’s hope not.

iPad = iPod, or iPhone, or iBook…don’t think so.

But then, Apple’s always been extremely prescient at redefining what I kinda “want” into something I truly “need.” My bet is, with time, iPad will end up filling some serious “wants” and it may not be long before I “need” to replace my MacBook.

Time will tell.